In
decision theory
Decision theory (or the theory of choice; not to be confused with choice theory) is a branch of applied probability theory concerned with the theory of making decisions based on assigning probabilities to various factors and assigning numerical ...
, the evidential reasoning approach (ER) is a generic evidence-based
multi-criteria decision analysis
Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) or multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a sub-discipline of operations research that explicitly evaluates multiple conflicting criteria in decision making (both in daily life and in settings ...
(MCDA) approach for dealing with problems having both quantitative and qualitative criteria under various uncertainties including ignorance and randomness. It has been used to support various
decision analysis Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, ...
, assessment and
evaluation
Evaluation is a
systematic determination and assessment of a subject's merit, worth and significance, using criteria governed by a set of standards. It can assist an organization, program, design, project or any other intervention or initiative ...
activities such as
environmental impact assessment
Environmental Impact assessment (EIA) is the assessment of the environmental consequences of a plan, policy, program, or actual projects prior to the decision to move forward with the proposed action. In this context, the term "environmental imp ...
and organizational
self-assessment
In social psychology, self-assessment is the process of looking at oneself in order to assess aspects that are important to one's identity. It is one of the motives that drive self-evaluation, along with self-verification and self-enhancement. Sedi ...
based on a range of
quality models.
Overview
The evidential reasoning approach has recently been developed on the basis of decision theory in particular
utility theory
As a topic of economics, utility is used to model worth or value. Its usage has evolved significantly over time. The term was introduced initially as a measure of pleasure or happiness as part of the theory of utilitarianism by moral philosopher ...
, artificial intelligence in particular the theory of evidence,
statistical analysis
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability.Upton, G., Cook, I. (2008) ''Oxford Dictionary of Statistics'', OUP. . Inferential statistical analysis infers propertie ...
and
computer
A computer is a machine that can be programmed to Execution (computing), carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations (computation) automatically. Modern digital electronic computers can perform generic sets of operations known as C ...
technology. It uses a
belief structure
A belief structure is a distributed assessment with beliefs.
Evidential reasoning
A belief structure is used in the evidential reasoning (ER) approach for multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to represent the performance of an alternati ...
to model an assessment with uncertainty, a
belief decision matrix
A decision matrix is a list of values in rows and columns that allows an analyst to systematically identify, analyze, and rate the performance of relationships between sets of values and information. Elements of a decision matrix show decisions bas ...
to represent an MCDA problem under uncertainty, evidential reasoning algorithms to aggregate criteria for generating distributed assessments, and the concepts of the belief and plausibility functions to generate a utility interval for measuring the degree of ignorance. A conventional
decision matrix
A decision matrix is a list of values in rows and columns that allows an analyst to systematically identify, analyze, and rate the performance of relationships between sets of values and information. Elements of a decision matrix show decisions bas ...
used for modeling an MCDA problem is a special case of a belief decision matrix.
The use of belief decision matrices for MCDA problem modelling in the ER approach results in the following features:
# An assessment of an option can be more reliably and realistically represented by a belief decision matrix than by a conventional decision matrix.
# It accepts data of different formats with various types of uncertainties as inputs, such as single numerical values, probability distributions, and subjective judgments with belief degrees.
# It allows all available information embedded in different data formats, including qualitative and incomplete data, to be maximally incorporated in assessment and decision making processes.
# It allows assessment outcomes to be represented more informatively.
See also
*
Decision-making software Decision-making software (DM software) is software for computer applications that help individuals and organisations make choices and take decisions, typically by ranking, prioritizing or choosing from a number of options.
An early example of DM so ...
*
Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA)
References
External links
International Society on Multiple Criteria Decision Making{{Webarchive, url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121214143115/http://www.terry.uga.edu/mcdm/ , date=2012-12-14
Multiple-criteria decision analysis